When to open: When you need to value AI companies / decide "what to buy now" / see how a16z, Sequoia and other VCs invest / want to understand the SaaS crisis / want to use AI as a ruler for investment decisions. This wiki integrates perspectives from 4 schools, with 3 core divergences explicitly marked.
Core message in one sentence:The positions of the 4 schools are different entry points to the same track —— Wang Kai does secondary market value investing (US stocks) / newtype looks at the primary VC market (Agent valuation) / Shensi Quan produces VC firm case studies / Rich Dad provides the philosophical foundation of assets and liabilities.Never use the "financing = success" framework, a leftover toxin from the internet era, in the age of AI.
0. The 4 schools of "AI investment"
| Perspective | Source | Investment model | One-sentence position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary market value investing school | Wang Kai's RSI AI investment strategy and the "good assets, good prices, good volatility" framework / Collection of Wang Kai's RSI investment real-case examples + AI value investing philosophy | Three layers: "good assets + good prices + good volatility" | "AI is not a fortune teller that predicts rises and falls, but a ruler that quantifies and prices vague risks" |
| Primary VC data school | AI Agent Market Investment Trends 2025 (data report) / newtype's observations on AI business, industry and investment | "King-making strategy / 25× revenue multiple / Sequoia Agent Economy three stages" | "$87 billion invested by VCs / 191 unicorns / a16z $15 billion fund" |
| Company case library school | Full collection entry for Shensi Quan author(659 articles) | "VCs + founders + valuation + company moves" | "Provides in-depth analysis 1–2 weeks earlier than other domestic self-media" |
| Asset-liability philosophy school | Rich Dad Poor Dad / Robert T. Kiyosaki's classic financial enlightenment book(Kiyosaki 1997) | "Assets put money in your pocket; liabilities take money out of your pocket" | "The poor work for money; the rich make money work for them / Four pillars of financial intelligence" |
1. Cross-author consensus (6 points)
1.1 "Cognition that is not monetized equals no cognition" (exclusive to Wang Kai but agreed by all)
Wang Kai's judgments on the AI industry and observations on the competitive landscape of large companies §1.2 Self-reflection:
| Wrong judgment | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Firmly believed in AI in December 2022, but did not buy NVDA | "Cognition that is not monetized equals no cognition" |
| ChatGPT would immediately disrupt search after its release | "Change is cumulative, not instantaneous" |
| Smartphones replaced feature phones instantly | Nokia still has a market capitalization of $40 billion today |
Why:Understanding in information vs. understanding in behavior are completely different(Baptism by Duan Yongping).Understanding = being able to act on it.
1.2 Three pillars: Buffett / Duan Yongping / Howard Marks
Wang Kai Wang Kai's RSI AI investment strategy and the "good assets, good prices, good volatility" framework §1 + Collection of Wang Kai's RSI investment real-case examples + AI value investing philosophy:
- Buffett:"Be greedy when others are fearful / margin of safety / moat"
- Duan Yongping:"Being cheap enough is not the key;understanding enough is the key" / "Two layers of meaning of understanding"
- Howard Marks:Volatility ≠ risk; real risk is fundamental change and moat erosion
Philosophical foundation from Rich Dad Kiyosaki:"Assets put money in your pocket; liabilities take money out of your pocket" —— The middle class treating their own house as an asset is a cognitive trap.
1.3 AI as a ruler (consensus across all schools + most complete formulation by Wang Kai)
Wang Kai's RSI AI investment strategy and the "good assets, good prices, good volatility" framework §4:
| Scenario | AI usage | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Market risk level | Score on a 1–10 scale | Determine cash ratio |
| Intrinsic enterprise value | Multi-model synthesis + interval | Decide whether to buy |
| Single-stock risk | Score across 5 short-, medium- and long-term dimensions | Determine position size |
| Emotional state | "Am I over-panicking right now?" | Prevent impulsive decisions |
| Risk of AI replacing jobs | List workflows and ask about replacement probability | Career planning |
Analogy:An actuary at an insurance company —— Give AI a stable framework, and it becomes a ruthless actuarial machine.
Key discipline:Consistency > accuracy.
1.4 Don't chase the main AI trend; do the supporting businesses (exclusive to Wang Kai but corroborated by Shensi Quan)
Wang Kai's RSI AI investment strategy and the "good assets, good prices, good volatility" framework §"Looking at the present from the perspective of AGI" (pinned post, 2025-04):
"I lived through the entire mobile internet cycle. Standing at the end of the mobile internet era and looking back at my past choices, what would I choose differently?"
Strategies I would change looking back:
- Not starting a business in the internet industry (especially in Beijing)
- Doing e-commerce business or milking platform traffic
- Doing MCN / batch-raising accounts
- Buying leading internet stocks both personally and as investments(Making more money than most core founding members of startups)
Translation to the present: Assuming AGI arrives on 2035-01-01, what should we do today?
- Don't chase the main AI trend(Avoid head-on competition with giants)
- Don't do directly AI-related businesses(Competition lasts too long; small teams can't afford it)
- Speculate which common sense/rules will be rewritten
- Do the supporting businesses during the rewriting process(Like MCNs / peripheral media)
- Hold leading AI stocks(NVDA / Apple / Google, etc.)
1.5 2025 VC market data (exclusive and complete from newtype)
AI Agent Market Investment Trends 2025 (data report):
| Indicator | Data |
|---|---|
| Global GenAI VC investment | $87 billion |
| AI Agent-specific financing | $6.4 billion / 451 deals(as of October) |
| Year-over-year growth vs 2024 | 65% |
| Mega-round share | Top 4 account for total 30%+ |
| Share of rounds above $500 million | 58% |
Valuations of the Big Three:
- OpenAI $500 billion → $830 billion
- Anthropic $183 billion → $350 billion
- xAI cumulative $42.1 billion
1.6 Three-layer investment framework (Wang Kai)
- Technology stack layer(bottom layer): chips → models → inference → applications
- Value chain layer(middle layer): data → decisions → actions
- Competitive landscape layer(top layer): monopoly / oligopoly / red ocean
Wang Kai's discipline:Only place heavy bets at the monopoly/oligopoly layer(Apple, missed NVDA, Google, ISRG).
2. Explicit divergences (3 points — not smoothed over)
2.1 Divergence 1: Secondary value investing vs primary VC investing?
| Perspective | Position | Key arguments |
|---|---|---|
| Wang Kai(secondary value investing) | "Running a business is more important than financing" | "Only one successful listed company comes out of thousands of projects;fewer than 100 people out of a base of 50,000 actually pocket a million. Successful financing only gets you to the table; whether you hold a losing hand hasn't been verified yet" |
| newtype-agent-market(primary VC data) | "King-making strategy: valuation triples in 27–60 days" | Cursor from $9.9 billion in June → $29.3 billion in November / sales revenue grew 100× / a16z's $15 billion fund accounts for 18% of US VC |
| Shensi Quan VC school | "a16z / Sequoia / YC are betting heavily on AI" | "The three keywords US dollars + financing + a16z account for one-third of articles" |
| Sequoia three stages | "Stage 1 Assistants → Stage 2 Agent Swarms → Stage 3 Agent Economy" | Konstantine Buhler strategist |
| Bubble warning school | "25× revenue multiple + 5× burn multiple" | Warnings from Gartner / McKinsey / BCG / IDC |
Real divergence:Different investment models bet on different things:
- Wang Kai bets on "monopoly companies + margin of safety" (2–5 year cycle)
- VCs bet on "the big explosion of the Agent Economy" (5–10 year cycle / 25× valuation multiple)
- Rich Dad bets on "cash-flow assets" (lifelong cycle)
2.2 Divergence 2: Is SaaS doomed?
| Perspective | Position |
|---|---|
| Market panic(2026-02 crash) | AI replaces labor → layoffs → SaaS charges per seat → revenue drops → valuation collapses (CRM/NOW/ADBE) |
| Wang Kai's rebuttal(Wang Kai's judgments on the AI industry and observations on the competitive landscape of large companies §8) | "No problem with certainty within 3 years" / the real risk is AI changing reading and writing(everyone wears AI glasses and no longer opens CRM) / currently a "good asset, good volatility" opportunity |
| Lao Huang(newtype's observations on AI business, industry and investment 2026-02 Post 2373) | "The end of intermediary monopolies" / Page Rank → Agent Rank |
| Consensus | SaaS giants have proprietary data + channels + services, and still hold advantages in the AI era;but intermediary-type platforms (only doing "information distribution" without proprietary data) are doomed |
Key judgment:Whether this SaaS company has "proprietary data / proprietary workflows / proprietary customer relationships"?
2.3 Divergence 3: Who to bet on — NVDA / Apple / Google?
| Perspective | Position |
|---|---|
| Wang Kai's lesson from missing NVDA | "Firmly believed in AI in December 2022, but did not buy NVDA —— cognition that is not monetized equals no cognition" |
| Lao Huang's logic for holding NVDA for 10 years(2025-12 Post 2076) | Accelerated computing + digital twins + AI for Science(acquisition of Groq for $20 billion is an inflection-point signal) |
| Wang Kai's view on Apple's path | 2024-02 "Apple is an inevitable winner" → exited position in 2026 (slow execution) |
| Wang Kai's perspective on Google | "Product color > technology color / No. 1 in the world in AI implementation"(From a context engineering perspective, it has the most high-quality context) |
Real divergence:Fundamental difference between short-term and long-term perspectives:
- NVDA long-term (10 years) → Lao Huang's position
- Apple short-term (2–3 years) → Wang Kai's exit position
- Google medium-term (3–5 years) → consensus bullish view across all schools
3. Detailed explanation of Wang Kai's RSI AI strategy (exclusive complete methodology)
3.1 Three-layer framework (launched 2025-05 → $250,000 capital pool in 2026-Q1)
First layer: Good assets (prerequisite)
- Market capitalization above $100 billion + monopoly in a niche segment + long history + has experienced volatility proving long-term value
- Do not buy small- and mid-caps(completely avoid anything below $30 billion)
- Do not buy inverse ETFs(SQQQ violates the premise that "good assets trend upward long-term")
Second layer: Good prices (margin of safety)
- Tools:owner-earnings.vercel.app Intrinsic value calculation
- Give intervals, not single points(avoid precise errors)
- Any company can definitely be waited for to reach a reasonable price
Third layer: Good volatility (entry signal)
- AI scores "risk" on a 1–5 scale
- 5 risk variables: fundamentals / macro / industry / liquidity / position concentration
3.2 Capital allocation rules (dynamic)
| Risk level | Position |
|---|---|
| Risk 1 | Full position buy ($40,000) |
| Risk 2 | 3/4 |
| Risk 3 | 1/2 |
| Risk 4 | Reduce position |
| Risk 5 | Clear position |
3.3 5 typical cases
| Company | Trigger | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Boeing | Government investigation → risk rating 2 → buy → resolved → close | 5%+ return |
| Apple | Trump tariffs → short-term drop → buy → rose 10% in 3 days | close |
| Alibaba | Rumor about a Hangzhou businessman surnamed Ma being a spy → 17% drop → buy | Risk eliminated and recovered |
| ISRG | Long-term decline for 2 months → fundamentals unchanged → kept adding positions | Single-day rebound of 20% |
| Duolingo | Bought ten times in a row → risk level never rose | Negative example, limit target size |
3.4 Evolution timeline of the $250,000 capital pool
2025-05 RSI v1 / 1 万美金起步 / 5/28 首笔 PDD
↓
2025-06 引入"好资产好波动" / 3 万
↓
2025-08 RSI v2 季度 4.3% / 限千亿龙头 / 多邻国亏损
↓
2025-09 自建金融 MCP(FMP API)
↓
2025-11 升级 Claude 125 美金/月 / 10 万
↓
2025-12 KeepRule 上线 + RSI v3 内在价值
↓
2026-01 升级 250 美金/月 + RSI v4 三层完整 / 21 万
↓
2026-02-05 SaaS 大跌防御 / 切微软 + 纳指 / 现金 45%
↓
2026-05 owner-earnings.vercel.app + KeepRule 26 大师 / 25 万
4. newtype VC market data (exclusive)
4.1 Top 10 VC institutions
- Index Ventures
- Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) — $15 billion new fund (18% of US VC)
- Sequoia Capital — Three-stage theory of the Agent Economy
- Lightspeed Venture Partners — Led Anthropic Series F
- Accel / General Catalyst / Kleiner Perkins / IVP / Founders Fund / Tiger Global
4.2 Typical Case of the "Kingmaking Strategy"
Cursor:
| Time | Valuation | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| June | $9.9 billion | $900 million financing |
| November | $29.3 billion | $2.3 billion Series D (3x in 5 months) |
| Annualized revenue | $1 billion | Sales revenue grew 100x |
4.3 Sequoia's Three-Stage Theory of the "Agent Economy"
- Stage 1:AI Assistants(Assistants) — Current
- Stage 2:Agent Clusters(Agent Swarms)— 2026-2028
- Stage 3:Agent Economy(Agent Economy)— 2028+
Representative investments:
- Harvey (legal AI): $300 million Series D, valuation $3 billion
- Serval (IT Agent): valuation $1 billion
4.4 Lao Huang's 10-year holding logic for NVDA
newtype AI Business, Industry and Investment Observations §6 (2025-12-02 Post 2076 Featured):
- Accelerated computing
- Digital twins
- AI for Science
NVDA's $20 billion acquisition of Groq (2026-01-24) is "an inflection signal of giants acquiring technology heretic companies".
5. Rich Dad Asset-Liability Philosophy (Exclusive Foundation)
Rich Dad Poor Dad / Robert Kiyosaki Classic Financial Enlightenment —— Asset and liability definitions still applicable in the AI era:
5.1 Asset vs Liability Definitions
| Asset | Liability |
|---|---|
| Something that puts money in your pocket | Something that takes money out of your pocket |
| Rental property / stocks / bonds / business | Owner-occupied mortgage / auto loan / credit cards |
| Positive cash flow | Negative cash flow |
5.2 Key Cognitive Traps
It is a cognitive trap for the middle class to treat their own home as an asset:
- Owner-occupied homes do not generate cash flow; instead, they incur monthly expenses
- Appreciation is also on paper; it only counts if you actually sell and move to a cheaper place
- The rich buy rental properties (generating rental cash flow) / the middle class buy owner-occupied homes
5.3 Four Pillars of Financial Intelligence
- Financial literacy(distinguishing assets from liabilities)
- Investing(making money work for you)
- Markets(understanding supply and demand)
- Law(taxation + corporate power)
5.4 Five Major Obstacles to Overcome
- Fear(fear of losing money)
- Cynicism(I know)
- Laziness(later)
- Bad habits(spending > saving)
- Arrogance(I already know)
6. Shensi Circle VC Perspective (659 Exclusive Articles)
Entry:Entry to the complete works of Shensi Circle authors —— Chinese self-media on AI entrepreneurship / company cases / VC perspective
Topic wiki(supplemented on 2026-05-18, deeply merged by topic):
- Shensi Circle / AI Primary Market VC Perspective (a16z + Sequoia + YC) —— Complete perspective of three VCs: a16z + Sequoia + YC(362 articles containing financing keywords)
- Shensi Circle / AI Agent Company Case Library —— Agent company case library / Cursor / Anthropic moat / Imbue
- Shensi Circle / AI B2B Vertical Industries (8 Major Track Unicorn Cases) —— Financing data for 8 major vertical track unicorns(legal/medical/insurance/HR/sales/customer service/recruitment/finance)
- Shensi Circle / Leading AI Company Moves (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google/Apple/Perplexity) —— OpenAI / Anthropic / Perplexity $450 million ARR and other valuation timelines
- Shensi Circle / AI Startup 0-1 Cases + Growth Playbooks —— PMF + 0-1 growth + Lovable / Perplexity cases
6.1 Three Major Propositions of a16z (Latest 2026-01)
Shensi Circle / AI Primary Market VC Perspective (a16z + Sequoia + YC) §1:
| Proposition | Source | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Supply-driven market(Marc Andreessen) | Substack investment logic | When supply-side breakthroughs occur, market size analysis fails → 10x/100x/1000x opportunities |
| Three paths to PMF(Jason Rosenthal 2026-05) | a16z crypto partner | Top-tier customers / exponential curve / being your own first customer |
| 10x judgment(Ben Horowitz) | Databricks case | "You underestimate your business; it will be 10 times larger than Oracle" |
6.2 Anthropic Moat Judgment (Latest 2026-05)
Shensi Circle / AI Agent Company Case Library §2:
"The scarcest thing in enterprise AI is shifting from "intelligence" to "permission". "(Jaya Gupta)
VC perspective extension:Valuation multiples are concentrating toward "organizational trust / permission", and the intelligence gap of models themselves is gradually losing its premium.
6.3 2026 Valuation Data Points
| Company | Valuation / ARR | Data source |
|---|---|---|
| Cursor | $50 billion | Shensi Circle / AI Coding Company Cases (Cursor/Lovable/Bolt/Devin/Replit) |
| Anthropic | Doubled in three months, surpassing OpenAI | Shensi Circle / Leading AI Company Moves (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google/Apple/Perplexity) |
| Perplexity | $450 million ARR (three and a half years) | Shensi Circle / Leading AI Company Moves (OpenAI/Anthropic/Google/Apple/Perplexity) |
| Lovable | $50 million ARR in 6 months | Shensi Circle / AI Coding Company Cases (Cursor/Lovable/Bolt/Devin/Replit) |
| Chinese-founded AI customer service company | Valuation $1.5 billion ($200 million financing) | Shensi Circle / AI B2B Vertical Industries (8 Major Track Unicorn Cases) |
| AI legal unicorn | $700 million (25-year-old founder) | Shensi Circle / AI B2B Vertical Industries (8 Major Track Unicorn Cases) |
7. How to Choose — Investment Paths by Identity
| Who you are | Primary method | Starting point |
|---|---|---|
| Secondary market retail investor | Wang Kai RSI Three-Layer Framework | Good assets + good prices + good volatility / hundred-billion-dollar leaders / position concentration |
| Focus on primary VC market | newtype + Shensi Circle | $87 billion VC investment / 191 unicorns / a16z + Sequoia / Sequoia three stages |
| Want to do AI risk quantification | Wang Kai Using AI as a Ruler | 5-dimension risk scoring / 6000+ word intrinsic value prompt / KeepRule 26 masters |
| Financial enlightenment / financial freedom | Rich Dad assets and liabilities | Distinguish assets from liabilities / 4 pillars / 5 obstacles |
| Bet on AGI long-term | Wang Kai "Standing from the AGI Perspective" | Do not bet on the main AI trend / do supporting plays / hold leading stocks |
| Which to choose among NVDA / Apple / Google | Lao Huang's 10-year NVDA logic / Wang Kai's Google perspective | Long-term NVDA / rotate out of Apple / medium-term Google |
Universal discipline(for any identity):
- Cognition that is not monetized equals no cognition(Wang Kai)
- Volatility ≠ risk(Howard Marks)
- Understanding well enough is key, not being cheap enough(Duan Yongping)
- Use AI as a ruler to quantify fuzzy variables(coherence > accuracy)
- Do not bet on the main AI trend(avoid head-on competition with giants)
- Cash flow is the lifeline(Rich Dad)
- Bet heavily on monopoly/oligopoly layers, do not bet heavily on red oceans
8. Citation List
Main original author wikis:
- Wang Kai RSI AI Investment Strategy and the "Good Assets, Good Prices, Good Volatility" Framework —— RSI AI three-layer framework / $250,000 capital pool evolution / 4 uses of AI / 5 mental methods / Duan Yongping baptism
- Wang Kai RSI Investment Practical Case Collection + AI Value Investing Philosophy —— 5 major cases BKNG/AMZN/QQQ/SPY/SONY, 8-part template / intrinsic value Prompt template / IFS psychological assistance
- Wang Kai AI Industry Judgment and Big Company Competitive Landscape Observations —— Three-layer investment framework / three Scaling Law debates / NVDA missed lesson / SaaS crisis judgment
- newtype AI Business, Industry and Investment Observations —— 10-year NVDA holding logic / end of SaaS intermediary monopoly / Apple AI path
- AI Agent Market Investment Trends 2025 (Data Report) —— VC $87 billion / 191 unicorns / kingmaking strategy / Sequoia three stages / 25× multiple
- Shensi Circle Author Complete Works Entry —— 659 articles / VC perspective / USD + financing + a16z / company case library
- Rich Dad Poor Dad / Robert Kiyosaki Classic Financial Enlightenment —— Kiyosaki asset-liability philosophy / 4 pillars + 5 obstacles
Related topic wikis (this series):
- AI Industry Judgment and Company Competition (Cross-Author Thematic Synthesis) —— AI Industry Judgment (Batch 2)
- Entrepreneurship Methodology (0 to 1) (Cross-Author Thematic Synthesis) —— Entrepreneurship Methodology (Batch 1)
- Scaling Law / AGI Timeline / Software 3.0 (Cross-Author Thematic Synthesis) —— Scaling Law / AGI (this batch Batch 4)
History
- 2026-05-18:Topic-dimension wiki first release. Synthesized and rewritten from 7 author wikis. Explicitly marked 3 disagreements: secondary vs VC / Is SaaS doomed? / NVDA vs Apple vs Google
Sources and related materials
- Wang Kai RSI AI Investment Strategy and the "Good Assets, Good Prices, Good Volatility" Framework
- Wang Kai RSI Investment Practical Case Collection + AI Value Investing Philosophy
- Wang Kai AI Industry Judgment and Big Company Competitive Landscape Observations
- newtype AI Business, Industry and Investment Observations
- AI Agent Market Investment Trends 2025 (Data Report)
- Shensi Circle Author Complete Works Entry
- Shensi Circle / AI Primary Market VC Perspective (a16z + Sequoia + YC)
- Shensi Circle / AI B2B Vertical Industries (8 Major Track Unicorn Cases)
- Rich Dad Poor Dad / Robert Kiyosaki Classic Financial Enlightenment
- AI Industry Judgment and Company Competition (Cross-Author Thematic Synthesis)
- Entrepreneurship Methodology (0 to 1) (Cross-Author Thematic Synthesis)
- Scaling Law / AGI Timeline / Software 3.0 (Cross-Author Thematic Synthesis)
- Shensi Circle / AI Agent Company Case Library