Produced by Truman, 2023-2024.Core courses of Yitang's scientific decision-making model, a 5-lesson series.
"When in doubt, use ROI" — this has become a catchphrase internally at Yitang. Lesson 1: Cognition Lesson1,138 internal testers submitted 993,000 Chinese characters of assignments, with an NPS of 85%(an extremely high NPS for a dry methodology course). To date13,000+ member assignments + 10+ cohorts of offline training camps.
I. Core Mindset
Broad ROI ≠ Narrow ROI
Narrow ROI: Return on Investment / marketing ROI (financial figures). Broad ROI(the focus of this course): ROI used in daily decision-making, business advancement, and team management,dozens to hundreds of times the quantity of narrow ROI.
Typical broad ROI decisions:
- Should we provide a free lunch policy for employees?
- Should we require all staff to clock in?
- Should we build a personal IP?
- Should we do live streaming?
- Should we hire a technical co-founder?
- Should we buy a school-district house for our daughter?
Three major inertial traps in decision-making
- Shoot-from-the-hip decisions — making a call after only vague thinking
- Missing pieces — failing to evaluate comprehensively, leaving blind spots
- Held back by face — unable to make rational decisions, swayed by personal relationships
Three pieces of advice
- Think holistically and weigh trade-offs comprehensively
- Believe that outcomes can be predicted
- Treat it as a team capability and practice the fundamentals diligently
II. The ROI Triangle — Overall Course Framework
高度
↑
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宽度 ←+→ 深度
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决策
| Dimension | Core Question | Operation |
|---|---|---|
| Breadth | Identify key input items and return items to avoid blind spots | List, Deduce, Build, Check |
| Depth | Strive for precision in some assessments, try quantification, and assess in depth with numbers | Upgrade from Type X to Type Y decision-making |
| Altitude | Fully consider long-term value, opportunity cost, and time window | Case Parking Lot / Dimension elevation |
III. Lesson 1: Cognition & Aesthetics (2023-Q1)
LEO's three-round growth story (building aesthetic judgment)
| Stage | LEO's Role |
|---|---|
| Round 1 | Product Lead (operational ROI) |
| Round 2 | New Business Lead (strategic ROI) |
| Round 3 | Teaching & Research Lead (team-level ROI) |
Through three stages of growth → build aesthetic judgment for "what counts as a high-quality ROI decision".
Key insight
You can slow down a little when making decisions, take time to sort out whether something is worth doing; many things are actually quite easy to judge.
IV. Lesson 2: Breadth — The Four-Character Method: List, Deduce, Build, Check
3 categories, 9 typical ROI assessment examples
Personal category:
- Should I change jobs?
- Should I buy a school-district house?
- Should I go for an MBA?
Team category: 4. Should we hold weekly meetings? 5. Should we implement position-based KPIs? 6. Should we provide free lunch for employees?
Company category: 7. Should we build an IP? 8. Should we do live streaming? 9. Should we hire a technical co-founder?
The four-character method: List, Deduce, Build, Check
| Character | Meaning |
|---|---|
| List | Calmly and diligently list the costs and benefits of the decision |
| Deduce | Deduce the full story using one order or one user as the starting point |
| Build | Build a MECE framework or formula for rigorous evaluation |
| Check | Consult experts, or conduct self-checks using the "Blind Spot Arsenal" |
Blind Spot Arsenal cheat sheet (deliverable)
A detailed SOP cheat sheet; when making decisions,review the cheat sheet first to avoid missing key items as much as possible. See the yitang-evaluate-roi-breadth Skill for details.
Candy: ROI Decision Case Collection
Liang Jing case: Whether to buy and build a self-built factory(detailed numerical breakdown):
- Current venue rent is 70,000 RMB/month, increasing to 100,000 RMB the year after next
- Purchasing a 1,000 sqm factory costs 10 million RMB
- Relocation cost: 2 million RMB + 500,000 RMB
- Labor cost (dormitory 300,000 RMB/year + turnover appeasement 100,000 RMB + recruitment +50,000 RMB/year)
- Business loss cost (1–2 months of business disruption)
- Total relocation cost ~11 million RMB
- Comparison with continuing to rent: with the 10 million RMB investment calculated at an annualized return of 2–4%, roughly it takes 9–10 years to break even with rental costs
- Long-term perspective: factory value preservation / industry barriers / cash flow pressure
- Final decision: make the choice after completing clear calculations
V. Lesson 3: Depth — Type X vs Type Y Decision-Makers
Type X vs Type Y Decision-Makers
| Type | Characteristics |
|---|---|
| Type X decision-maker | Decides by gut feel / vague judgment / simple evaluation |
| Type Y decision-maker | Quantitative calculation / multi-variable analysis / precise figures |
Upgrade path: from Type X to Type Y, gradually improving decision depth.
Case Parking Lot — 10-case multi-round iterative teaching method
Teaching method innovation: the same case is discussed through multiple rounds of iteration, progressing from L1 shallow analysis → L5 deep analysis.
Candy: Experience Value Selected Assignment Collection
Industry benchmarks shared by students from real practice:
1. Zheng Ce: B2B enterprise informatization sales cycle
Tiered by average deal size:
- 100,000–200,000 RMB projects → 1–3 months to close
- 200,000–500,000 RMB projects → 3–6 months to close
- 500,000–1.5 million RMB projects → 6–12 months to close
- 1.5 million RMB+ → over 6 months
- < 100,000 RMB → 0.5–2 months
Usage: if the cycle is exceeded → be alert to project out-of-control and low win rate.
2. Wang Yiyi: Yonyou B2B SaaS benchmarking analysis (6-dimension quantification)
- Brand reputation: CAGR vs peers (Yonyou 10% vs industry 20%)
- Brand loyalty: NDR (overseas SaaS 80-130%, Yonyou core products 105%)
- Economies of scale: Gross profit margin grading (>65% full score, 50% mid score)
- Accounts receivable turnover: <0 full score, within 1 month 75 points, 2 months 50 points, 3 months 25 points
- Cost advantage: Gross profit margin grading
- Process advantage + geographic location
3. Guo Jinhuo: 30 years of empirical values in real estate
After more than 30 years of development,the empirical values for cost, construction period, and quality have been basically determined. Most cities/companies can refer to and use them (see the original document for specific figures).
VI. Lesson 4: Altitude Chapter — Long-term + Opportunity Cost + Time Window
3 major dimensions of altitude
| Dimension | Key question |
|---|---|
| Long-term value | What will this decision mean 5-10 years from now? |
| Opportunity cost | If we don't do this, what else can the resources be used for? |
| Time window | Now vs 1 year later vs 5 years later, will the opportunity still exist? |
Candy: Collection of Yitang Students' Scientific Decision-Making Cases
Student practice: Multiple high-altitude decision cases
Yue Shijie: Should Hushuobao self-develop professional digital walkie-talkies?
Background: Hushuobao is a communication system for the catering industry (SaaS + hardware), with "broadcast + intercom + targeted notification" as its core functions. It currently uses a partner's analog communication technology, which has signal issues in large restaurants over 4,000 square meters.
Technical proposal: Independently develop pure digital walkie-talkies.
L1 level analysis:
- Input: 2 engineers for 1 year + 1 tester for half a year + 2-3 months of market trial
- Return: Omitted for now (see the original document for specific figures)
L2/L3/L4 multi-round elevation: The case demonstrates the gradual dimension-elevation process of ROI altitude.
VII. Lesson 5: Implementation Training Chapter (Updated Fall 2024)
Course positioning
This topic is the inflection point and necessary path for any excellent entrepreneur or manager to awaken to rational decision-making.
Relationship with other courses:
- "One of the scientific decision-making methodologies" in the Key Assumptions course series
- Runs through all core modules of Yitang:Scientific management / Scientific AI scenario implementation / Scientific assumption evaluation / Scientific recruitment / Scientific talent deployment
Candy 1: Excellent Case Collection of Scientific Decision-Making ROI Analysis
Gao Lijuan: Beauty salon "Ten-Year Pact" — Whether to participate in the 10-year 100,000-yuan program?
ROI analysis:
- Monetary cost: 100,000 yuan/year = 834 yuan/month = 210 yuan/week (48 weeks/year)
- Time cost: 1.5 hours per week (extra time spent compared to not going to the beauty salon)
- Opportunity cost:
- Missing out on better beauty salons after being locked in
- Time and money could be used for learning and socializing
- Risks:
- The other party absconding (low probability)
- The other party relocating / me relocating
- Service quality declining after payment
- Long-term visits actually harming health
- Pressure from unstable income
- Key benefits:
- Money saved on individually purchased services (calculated as a net 0-115 yuan per week)
- Discounted value of beauty salon perks (roughly 60 yuan per week)
- Final conclusion: Participate, but pay monthly + pay after use to reduce risk
Candy 2: Fall 2024 Ma Scientific Decision-Making Benchmark Case
Chen Zhuojun: Whether to invest tens of millions to win a major client(Perfume pump manufacturing for cosmetics)
Background:
- The company mainly deals in cosmetic consumables, and its niche segment is perfume pumps
- Taking over the family business, with a turnover of 60 million yuan, an upper-mid-tier player
- Perfume pumps are small parts with high technical content (precise spray volume control / even spray / leak-proof / stable)
- Each costs a few jiao, but the annual order value is high
Core decision: Should we invest tens of millions to win this major client?
Key point:The process of the team continuously hesitating step by step, repeatedly overturning ideas, gradually clarifying thinking, and gradually building consensus.
(See the original document for the detailed ROI analysis process — it is a benchmark case combining ROI altitude and depth)
VIII. Position of the 5-Lesson Series
《关键假设》系列 = A (前置认知)
《科学决策 ROI》系列 = B (科学决策方法论)
├─ 第 1 课:认知审美篇
├─ 第 2 课:宽度篇(列推建查)
├─ 第 3 课:深度篇(X→Y 型)
├─ 第 4 课:高度篇(长期/机会成本/时间窗口)
└─ 第 5 课:落地训练篇 ⭐ 2024 秋更新
Why the 4 + 1 structure? Because the first 4 lessons cover methods, and the 5th lesson covers how to turn methods into the team's basic skills(Training camp + practical drills).
IX. Key Quotes
- "When in doubt, use ROI" — A catchphrase of the Yitang team
- "You can slow down your decision-making by half a beat, take some time to sort out whether it's worth doing"
- "ROI is a ruler" — It is not for evaluating whether something is worth doing, but for using ROI to adjust "not quite workable" to "very workable"
- "Think holistically and weigh comprehensively"
- "Believe that prediction is possible" — Don't use "the future is uncertain" as an excuse to avoid decision-making
- "Train basic skills diligently" — ROI is a team-level capability
X. Training Camp Products
"Scientific Decision-Making Training Camp"(Supporting training camp for 2024):
- 10+ offline training camp sessions
- On-site coaching for hundreds of students
- Supported by over 13,000 member assignments
See also
- yitang-evaluate-roi-breadth(Skill) — ROI Breadth Skill
- yitang-evaluate-roi-depth(Skill) — ROI Depth Skill
- yitang-evaluate-roi-height(Skill) — ROI Height Skill
- yitang-evaluate-roi-loop(Skill) — ROI 5-Step Training Dynamic Workflow Skill
- Yitang / First Lesson on In-Depth Review — Review (post-hoc review of ROI decisions)
- Yitang / Complete Inspiration Flash System (Cognition + Cases + Tools + Notes) — Inspiration flash (addition of decision options)
- Wang Kai RSI Investment Practical Case Collection + AI Value Investment Philosophy — Wang Kai RSI Investment 5 Cases (financial-level ROI)
- Wang Kai AI Era Decision-Making System — Wang Kai Decision-Making System (from an AGI perspective)
- "Rich Dad Poor Dad" / Robert Kiyosaki Classic Financial Literacy Enlightenment — Rich Dad Poor Dad (financial and wealth management-level ROI)
Relationship with existing Skills
The 4 ROI Skills (breadth/depth/height/loop) are operational frameworks, and this wiki is the essence integration of course verbatim transcripts + 5 major Candy case collections, serving as a supporting knowledge base for the Skills.
When students use the Skills to make decisions, they can return to this wiki to look up Candy cases as benchmark references.